Oscars Betting
- Oscars Betting Lines
- Oscars Betting Line
- Oscars Betting Tips
- Oscar Betting Strategy
- Oscars Betting System
- Oscars Betting Sheet 2020
- Oscars Betting Squares
Conducted annually, the Oscars are the signature event for Hollywood (and the entertainment business as a whole) where awards for excellence in cinematic achievement are doled out. In addition to the glitz and glamour of the Oscars, the Academy Awards present a good betting opportunity. Oscars betting is simply where you place a bet on your prediction for the winner of an award category. So, you will want to be sure you are aware of all of the Oscars favorites before you put your. The Oscars 2021 Outrights Betting & Odds What will be the outcome of the The Oscars 2021?! Get a bet on with Paddy! Check out the odds on our The Oscars 2021 - Best Adapted Screenplay page, and show your special bets knowledge. What are the odds on the Best Adapted Screenplay? It looks like Nomadland has the best chance, at odds of 4/9.
2020 Best Picture Odds. 1917 (-167) Parasite (+200) Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (+950) Joker (+1250) The Irishman (+6600) Jojo Rabbit (+9000) Marriage Story (+10000) Little Women (+15000) Ford v Ferrari (+25000). Oscars Odds, 2021 Academy Awards Props 93rd Oscars Betting There are currently no lines available for this sport. Either there are no odds open to bet on, or the sport is not in season at this time.
Oscar's Grind is a betting strategy used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin, betting on red or black in roulette, etc.). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French it is often referred to as the Pluscoup Progression. It was first documented by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book,The Casino Gambler's Guide.[1] This progression is based on calculating the size of bets so that in the event of a losing streak, if and when a same-length winning streak occurs, a profit is obtained. The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks, which hopefully will follow.
Description[edit]
Oscar's Grind divides the entire gambling event into sessions. A session is a sequence of consecutive wagers made until 1 unit of profit is won. Each session begins by betting 1 unit, and ends by winning 1 unit of profit. If the gambler loses, the session continues and the bet is repeated. Each time the gambler wins the game following a lost game, the bet is increased by 1 unit. This increase is not performed if the current bet warrants achieving at least 1 unit of profit in total, in case the next game is won. On the contrary, the bet size in such a situation should be decreased to assure exactly 1 unit is won.
Algorithm[edit]
Example[edit]
Bet size | Result | Profit | Comment |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Loss | −1 | Bet size stays the same |
1 | Loss | −2 | Bet size stays the same |
1 | Loss | −3 | Bet size stays the same |
1 | Loss | −4 | Bet size stays the same |
1 | Loss | −5 | Bet size stays the same |
1 | Win | −4 | Bet size is 2 units now |
2 | Loss | −6 | Bet size remains 2 units |
2 | Win | −4 | Bet size increases to 3 units |
3 | Win | −1 | Only 2 units needed to achieve profit |
2 | Win | 1 | Session ends |
Analysis[edit]
Oscar's Grind is the same as Martingale-based and Labouchère system in the sense that if you have an infinite amount to wager and time, every session will make a profit. Not meeting these conditions will result in an inevitable loss of your entire stake in the long run. You can only lose 500 times in a row from a 500 unit bankroll, and if occasional wins increase the betsize, this number decreases significantly. Oscar's Grind is based on losing streaks being 'compensated' by winning streaks in the short run, and in the example above, a 5-long losing streak was equalised by a 3-long winning streak. If we get 'compensated' with a 5-long winning streak, we get 3 units of profit. The base of the system originates in a hot-hand bias, but winning and losing streaks in gambling have no mathematical ground or proof.
Variations[edit]
Oscars Betting Lines
Oscar's Grind can be applied to non-even bets as well ('streets' in roulette or 'doubling' in blackjack); one just has to keep track of the amount and increase the betsize after wins accordingly. There are also variations that try to reduce the variance by waiting for a couple of wins before increasing the betsize. As it is with all betting progressions, no variation of Oscar's Grind will make a profit in the long run.[2]
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^Mason Malmuth; Lynne Loomis (1993), Fundamentals of Craps, Two Plus Two Publishing, p. 46, ISBN1-880685-30-2
- ^'Why Any Progression Must Fail for Negative Expectancy Games in the Long Run?'. imspirit.wordpress.com. December 2012. Retrieved 26 August 2015.
Introduction
Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.
Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.
Rules
The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.
- The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
- The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
- The player makes a one-unit bet.
- If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
- Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
- Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
- Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
- The player bets.
- Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.
*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.
Simulation Results
To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.
The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.
Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet
Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability winning goal reached | 90.17% | 95.65% | 97.69% | 98.77% | 99.46% |
Average number of bets | 4.736 | 5.697 | 6.230 | 6.646 | 7.067 |
Average units bet | 6.626 | 10.609 | 14.557 | 19.609 | 28.650 |
Expected win per session | -0.082 | -0.131 | -0.180 | -0.242 | -0.354 |
Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.234% | 1.235% | 1.236% | 1.235% | 1.235% |
Oscars Betting Line
The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.
Craps Simulation — Pass Bet
Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.63% | 97.67% | 98.76% | 99.45% |
Average number of bets | 4.289 | 5.161 | 5.645 | 6.024 | 6.409 |
Average units bet | 6.001 | 9.616 | 13.205 | 17.804 | 26.051 |
Expected win per session | -0.085 | -0.136 | -0.187 | -0.252 | -0.368 |
Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.413% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.413% |
The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.
Craps Simulation — Don't Pass
Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.64% | 97.68% | 98.76% | 99.46% |
Average number of bets | 4.410 | 5.307 | 5.805 | 6.193 | 6.589 |
Average units bet | 6.171 | 9.887 | 13.574 | 18.296 | 26.768 |
Expected win per session | -0.084 | -0.135 | -0.185 | -0.250 | -0.365 |
Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.
Oscars Betting Tips
Roulette Simulation — Single Zero
Oscar Betting Strategy
Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability winning goal reached | 89.40% | 95.11% | 97.29% | 98.49% | 99.28% |
Average number of bets | 4.381 | 5.327 | 5.871 | 6.314 | 6.789 |
Average units bet | 6.156 | 10.059 | 14.074 | 19.418 | 29.545 |
Expected win per session | -0.166 | -0.272 | -0.380 | -0.525 | -0.799 |
Ratio money lost to Money bet | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.
Roulette Simulation — Double Zero
Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability winning goal reached | 87.81% | 93.93% | 96.39% | 97.81% | 98.81% |
Average number of bets | 4.567 | 5.670 | 6.350 | 6.944 | 7.646 |
Average units bet | 6.468 | 10.982 | 15.945 | 23.026 | 37.824 |
Expected win per session | -0.340 | -0.578 | -0.839 | -1.212 | -1.991 |
Ratio money lost to Money bet | 5.263% | 5.264% | 5.262% | 5.264% | 5.264% |
Oscars Betting System
Video
Oscars Betting Sheet 2020
Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
External Links
Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.
Oscars Betting Squares
Written by: Michael Shackleford